Reports of Russian Collapse In and Around Kherson

Reports of Russian Collapse In and Around Kherson

There are various reports of continuing Ukrainian advances in Kherson. Russia seems to have had to fall back another 20 kilometers in Kherson. Getting pushed into small pockets. Ukraine continues to have upper hand with recon, information and destroying supplies, logistics and ammo. It is flat terrain in Kherson on the north side of the Dnipro. No places to setup significant defensive lines.

Retired Australian Army Major General, Mick Ryan, has these observations.

1. The Ukrainians had a broad overall operational design featuring potential operations in the south, north east – and probably elsewhere. However, launching these was not only based on time, but also about when opportunities presented themselves.

2. The Ukrainians clearly had both dedicated and situational reserves that they had allocated for planned offensives – and for exploiting opportunities. Creating these required a good appreciation of risk, deception, operational security and logistic stockpiling.

3. the Ukrainians have fought a superior recon battle. A senior military officer, during our Kyiv visit, confirmed the Russians were poor at tactical recon. This is an essential part of preventing surprise and recognizing enemy weaknesses to exploit.

13/ Fourth, after nearly 8 months of operations (and 8 years since Russia started this war), Ukraine has several senior commanders who are seasoned strategists and operational artists. They clearly know their enemy well, and know how to balance strategic risk & opportunity.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 5, 2022

14/ And these commanders, including Generals Zaluzhnyi, Syrskiy and Kovalchuk, are adept at guiding their staffs and subordinate commanders through the planning and execution of large scale military operations. This is a rare skill that few military institutions master.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 5, 2022

18/ The Russian Army do not appear to have an answer to what the Ukrainians are doing to them. We are seeing cascading failures which are likely to continue for a while yet. The injection of mobilised troops is likely to provide only human speed bumps for the Ukrainians.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 5, 2022

Russian media Rybar’s latest map shows how dire the situation is in northern Kherson for Russia. These maps are 4 hours apart.

— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) October 4, 2022

Kherson: In the past 72 hours, Ukraine has liberated 2,000+ sq kms in Kherson alone. Ukraine is now in artillery range of the entire Russian army stranded across the river.

The end is near.

— CJ (@CasualArtyFan) October 4, 2022

Snihurivka confirmed liberated just an hour ago. It was the site of protests against the sham referendums recently held by Russia at gunpoint. Looks like the votes have been counted, and Snihurivka is Ukraine 🇺🇦

(Picture from recent protests)

— CJ (@CasualArtyFan) October 4, 2022

A timelapse of the development of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kherson Oblast over the past 5 days.

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) October 5, 2022

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